Open Access
Breaking free? The evolution of intra-Asian trade at the dawn of globalization (1795-1839)
(Wiley, 2024) Ayuso Díaz, Alejandro; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Economía; Ekonomia; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa
This article contributes to the scholarly discourse on the repercussions of trade liberalization in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries that contributed to early globalization, offering a perspective that extends beyond the traditional focus on Atlantic economies. Our study centres on East and Southeast Asia, pivotal in Pacific and Indian Ocean trade. We overcome data scarcity by presenting a new, partner-disaggregated imports dataset spanning 10 ports across the region from 1795 to 1839. Employing a gravity model and incorporating interactions, we assess the degree of intra-Asian trade and its evolution following key events that liberalized East and Southeast Asian commerce in a period when measurable global integration started to become apparent. Supporting new Asian scholarship, our results highlight the remarkable intra-Asian trade before the high colonial era. We also show that, in general, colonial trade policies fostering inter-continental trade disproportionately augmented colonial imports in East and Southeast Asia, eclipsing gains in intra-Asian or Pacific trade, especially before 1830. We explore the impact of the influx of British textiles in the region as a mechanism to explain these trends. Our study illuminates complex trade dynamics in East and Southeast Asia during a transformative period of measurable global integration.
Open Access
Human capital and institutions on Latin American FDI (1970-2014)
(Instituto de Educación Secundaria Valle del Ebro, 2019-10-20) Ayuso Díaz, Alejandro; Economía; Ekonomia
The following thesis belongs to the literature of FDI determinants on developing countries and its main contribution is its distinction between societies that are redistributive (in the sense that they spend bigger proportions of GDP in Social Protection) and those that aren't. For this purpose, the present paper gathers information about FDI inflows and many possible determinants, among which, we will care about Human Capital and Institutional Quality, for 17 Latin and Central American countries (not including islands) between 1970 and 2014. After that, a static linear econometric model is estimated using panel data techniques and results show that both variables of interest affect FDI inflows in a positive way and that their marginal effect is bigger in those societies spending more in Social Protection. Such a positive impact is confirmed after using a dynamic model, but not the incremental effect of spending more in Social Protection.
Open Access
More integrated than ever? Long-term market and policy drivers of intra-Asian trade
(Institute for International Economics, Sejong University, 2023) Ayuso Díaz, Alejandro; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Economía; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE
Since the Doha Round stalemate after 2001, trade liberalization has progressed through regional trade agreements (RTAs) and East and Southeast Asia is not unfamiliar with this. Before assessing the effectiveness of recent trade agreements, the long tradition of trade exchange in this region that has lasted for more than 2,000 years necessitates an understanding of the evolution of intra-Asian trade across history. In this regard, this study contributes to the literature examining whether present intra-Asian trade is more or less intense than before 1938. This research outperforms previous studies using a gravity model that controls for changes in GDP and trade costs in the region across four different time periods (between 1840 and 2018). The results show that contemporary regional trade in East and Southeast Asia is slightly less intense than before World War II. A second question addressed is the relevance of trade agreements after the 1985 Plaza Accord on trade integration, compared with market determinants. A second gravity model for regional imports after 1986 is regressed on both policy and market indicators, indicating that the latest wave of intra-Asian trade is characterized by trade complementarities that are fueled by regional foreign direct investment, and free trade agreements are less effective. This result is validated through a network analysis demonstrating the symbiosis between trade and investment flows in the region, which should be considered in RTAs that are in place or in negotiation to take intra-Asian trade beyond its historical limits.
Open Access
¿Fue el tratado de Versalles irracional?: un juego de rol
(Dykinson, 2023) Ayuso Díaz, Alejandro; Economía; Ekonomia
Los acuerdos surgidos de la Conferencia de Versalles en 1919 y plasmados en el Tratado con el mismo nombre suscitan todavía controversia a día de hoy. Desde las voces que defienden que dichos acuerdos solamente pudieron ser alcanzados por el afán de revancha y la visión nacionalista de los vencedores (Keynes, 1919), hasta aquellos que dicen que las consecuencias últimas del tratado llevaron a la Segunda Guerra Mundial (Taylor, 1996). Además, las continuas crisis económicas vividas en el periodo de entreguerras en contraste con la rápida recuperación tras la Segunda Guerra Mundial llevan frecuentemente a los alumnos a pensar que los acuerdos alcanzados en Versalles se alcanzaron desde la visceralidad y en un horizonte cortoplacista, sin atender a razones lógicas y sin visión alguna de futuro. Ello se debe fundamentalmente a la costumbre de juzgar los acontecimientos históricos desde un prisma actual sin atender al contexto histórico ni a las motivaciones principales de los participantes. Esta tendencia puede deberse a la forma de abordar la asignatura de Historia en los institutos, puesto que allí se trata de conocer y comprender los acontecimientos sin atender a los motivos que los propiciaron ni a los incentivos a los que se enfrentaban los principales personajes históricos. Es por ello que el principal objetivo de las asignaturas de Historia en la Universidad debe ser el de conocer y contextualizar las causas últimas de acontecimientos históricos relevantes y allí radica el principal motivo por el que se propone este ejercicio.

Ayuso Díaz, Alejandro

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