Duty calls: prediction of failure in reorganization processes

Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Bonilla Acosta, Harold; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando

Publication:
Duty calls: prediction of failure in reorganization processes

dc.contributor.author	Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel
dc.contributor.author	Bonilla Acosta, Harold
dc.contributor.author	Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando
dc.contributor.department	Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE	en
dc.date.accessioned	2023-06-26T12:00:19Z
dc.date.available	2023-06-26T12:00:19Z
dc.date.issued	2023
dc.date.updated	2023-06-26T11:48:55Z
dc.description.abstract	Purpose – Using data from business reorganization processes under Act 1116 of 2006 in Colombia during the period 2008 to 2018, a model for predicting the success of these processes is proposed. The paper aims to validate the model in two different periods. The first one, in 2019, characterized by stability, and the second one, in 2020, characterized by the uncertainty generated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach – A set of five financial variables comprising indebtedness, profitability and solvency proxies, firm age, macroeconomic conditions, and industry and regional dummies are used as independent variables in a logit model to predict the failure of reorganization processes. In addition, an out-ofsample analysis is carried out for the 2019 and 2020 periods. Findings – The results show a high predictive power of the estimated model. Even the results of the out-ofsample analysis are satisfactory during the unstable pandemic period. However, industry and regional effects add no predictive power for 2020, probably due to subsidies for economic activity and the relaxation of insolvency legislation in Colombia during that year. Originality/value – In a context of global reform in insolvency laws, the consistent predictive ability shown by the model, even during periods of uncertainty, can guide regulatory changes to ensure the survival of companies entering into reorganization processes, and reduce the observed high failure rate.	en
dc.description.sponsorship	The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from grant funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033.	en
dc.format.mimetype	application/pdf	en
dc.identifier.citation	Abinzano, I., Bonilla, H., & Muga, L. (2023). Duty calls: Prediction of failure in reorganization processes. The Journal of Risk Finance, 24(3), 337-353. https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-08-2022-0227	en
dc.identifier.doi	10.1108/JRF-08-2022-0227
dc.identifier.issn	1526-5943
dc.identifier.uri	https://academica-e.unavarra.es/handle/2454/45610
dc.language.iso	eng	en
dc.publisher	Emerald	en
dc.relation.ispartof	Journal of Risk Finance, 24(3), 337-353	en
dc.relation.projectID	info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/PID2019-104304GB-I00/ES/	en
dc.relation.publisherversion	https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-08-2022-0227
dc.rights	© Emerald Publishing Limited	en
dc.rights.accessRights	Acceso abierto / Sarbide irekia	es
dc.rights.accessRights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess	en
dc.subject	Failure	en
dc.subject	Insolvency	en
dc.subject	Prediction	en
dc.subject	Reorganization processes	en
dc.title	Duty calls: prediction of failure in reorganization processes	en
dc.type	Artículo / Artikulua	es
dc.type	info:eu-repo/semantics/article	en
dc.type.version	Versión aceptada / Onetsi den bertsioa	es
dc.type.version	info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion	en
dspace.entity.type	Publication
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