Trends, projections, and regional disparities of maternal mortality in Africa (1990-2030): an ARIMA forecasting approach

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dc.contributor.authorOnambele, Luc
dc.contributor.authorGuillén Aguinaga, Sara
dc.contributor.authorGuillén Aguinaga, Laura
dc.contributor.authorOrtega-Leon, Wilfrido
dc.contributor.authorMontejo, Rocío
dc.contributor.authorAlas Brun, Rosa María
dc.contributor.authorAguinaga Ontoso, Enrique
dc.contributor.authorAguinaga Ontoso, Inés
dc.contributor.authorGuillén Grima, Francisco
dc.contributor.departmentCiencias de la Saludes_ES
dc.contributor.departmentOsasun Zientziakeu
dc.date.accessioned2024-05-27T17:17:45Z
dc.date.available2024-05-27T17:17:45Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.date.updated2024-05-27T16:48:32Z
dc.description.abstractWith the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) (2015–2030) focused on the reduction in maternal mortality, monitoring and forecasting maternal mortality rates (MMRs) in regions like Africa is crucial for health strategy planning by policymakers, international organizations, and NGOs. We collected maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the World Bank database between 1990 and 2015. Joinpoint regression was applied to assess trends, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used on 1990–2015 data to forecast the MMRs for the next 15 years. We also used the Holt method and the machine-learning Prophet Forecasting Model. The study found a decline in MMRs in Africa with an average annual percentage change (APC) of −2.6% (95% CI −2.7; −2.5). North Africa reported the lowest MMR, while East Africa experienced the sharpest decline. The region-specific ARIMA models predict that the maternal mortality rate (MMR) in 2030 will vary across regions, ranging from 161 deaths per 100,000 births in North Africa to 302 deaths per 100,000 births in Central Africa, averaging 182 per 100,000 births for the continent. Despite the observed decreasing trend in maternal mortality rate (MMR), the MMR in Africa remains relatively high. The results indicate that MMR in Africa will continue to decrease by 2030. However, no region of Africa will likely reach the SDG target.en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.citationOnambele, L., Guillen-Aguinaga, S., Guillen-Aguinaga, L., Ortega-Leon, W., Montejo, R., Alas-Brun, R., Aguinaga-Ontoso, E., Aguinaga-Ontoso, I., Guillen-Grima, F. (2023) Trends, projections, and regional disparities of maternal mortality in Africa (1990-2030): An ARIMA forecasting approach. Epidemiologia, 4(3), 322-351. https://doi.org/10.3390/epidemiologia4030032.en
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/epidemiologia4030032
dc.identifier.issn2673-3986
dc.identifier.urihttps://academica-e.unavarra.es/handle/2454/48197
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisherMDPIen
dc.relation.ispartofEpidemiologia 2023, 4(3), 322-351en
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://doi.org/10.3390/epidemiologia4030032es_ES
dc.rights© 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license.en
dc.rights.accessRightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectAfricaen
dc.subjectARIMAen
dc.subjectForecastingen
dc.subjectJoinpoint regression analysisen
dc.subjectMachine learningen
dc.subjectMaternal mortality rateen
dc.subjectMortalityen
dc.subjectTrendsen
dc.titleTrends, projections, and regional disparities of maternal mortality in Africa (1990-2030): an ARIMA forecasting approachen
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dspace.entity.typePublication
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relation.isAuthorOfPublication5512713c-5fd3-4806-a61b-2972921a9c6f
relation.isAuthorOfPublicatione7178013-f5e6-4100-80b2-23f1d6cb6408
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationdfbf180f-dd66-42b9-ba45-2de0b3a334d5
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery359f165a-4c28-44bf-b931-6e5243be44db

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