Measuring the impact of an emergency financial assistance program

One of the clearest facts regarding the actual economic crisis is the increase in social inequalities and its resulting risk for families in social exclusion. In this type of situations, the need for accessing to social protection systems deepens. In Navarre, the principal exclusion coverage system is the Renta de Inclusión Social (RIS). The RIS is a benefit of subjective right and key element for the containment of socioeconomic deterioration processes. Due to the multiple situations of long term unemployment and precarious job contracts, people without coverage present a real social need which is attended in Navarre through the RIS. The main objective of this work is to accurately predict the number of RIS Applications entering the Social Rights Department of the Government of Navarre, given its main determinant, which is Uncovered Unemployed. This prediction will serve as an extremely valuable budgetary instrument for this Department.