Analysis of the suitability of the EOLO wind-predictor model for the spanish electricity markets
| dc.contributor.author | Martínez-Lastras, Saray | |
| dc.contributor.author | Frías Paredes, Laura | |
| dc.contributor.author | Prieto-Herráez, Diego | |
| dc.contributor.author | Gastón Romeo, Martín | |
| dc.contributor.author | González-Aguilera, Diego | |
| dc.contributor.department | Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas | es_ES |
| dc.contributor.department | Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika | eu |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2023-08-02T18:06:57Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2023-08-02T18:06:57Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2023 | |
| dc.date.updated | 2023-08-02T18:02:58Z | |
| dc.description.abstract | Wind energy forecasting is a critical aspect for wind energy producers, given that the chaotic nature and the intermittence of meteorological wind cause difficulties for both the integration and the commercialization of wind-produced electricity. For most European producers, the quality of the forecast also affects their financial outcomes since it is necessary to include the impact of imbalance penalties due to the regularization in balancing markets. To help wind farm owners in the elaboration of offers for electricity markets, the EOLO predictor model can be used. This tool combines different sources of data, such as meteorological forecasts, electric market information, and historic production of the wind farm, to generate an estimation of the energy to be produced, which maximizes its financial performance by minimizing the imbalance penalties. This research study aimed to evaluate the performance of the EOLO predictor model when it is applied to the different Spanish electricity markets, focusing on the statistical analysis of its results. Results show how the wind energy forecast generated by EOLO anticipates real electricity generation with high accuracy and stability, providing a reduced forecast error when it is used to participate in successive sessions of the Spanish electricity market. The obtained error, in terms of RMAE, ranges from 8%, when it is applied to the Day-ahead market, to 6%, when it is applied to the last intraday market. In financial terms, the prediction achieves a financial performance near 99% once imbalance penalties have been discounted. | en |
| dc.description.sponsorship | This work has been supported by the the Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades, grant contract: RTC-2017-6635-3; by the University of Salamanca General Foundation, grant contract: PC_TCUE2-23_012; by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and the Department of Education of the regional government, the Junta of Castilla y León, grant contract SA089P20; and by the European Union’s Horizon 2020—Research and Innovation Framework Program under grant agreement ID 101036926. | en |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | en |
| dc.identifier.citation | Martínez-Lastras, S., Frías-Paredes, L., Prieto-Herráez, D., Gastón-Romeo, M., González-Aguilera, D. (2023) Analysis of the suitability of the EOLO wind-predictor model for the spanish electricity markets. Energies, 16(3), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16031101. | en |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.3390/en16031101 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1996-1073 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://academica-e.unavarra.es/handle/2454/45818 | |
| dc.language.iso | eng | en |
| dc.publisher | MDPI | en |
| dc.relation.ispartof | Energies 2023, 16(3), 1101 | en |
| dc.relation.projectID | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/European Commission/Horizon 2020 Framework Programme/101036926/ | |
| dc.relation.projectID | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2013-2016/RTC-2017-6635-3/ | |
| dc.relation.publisherversion | https://doi.org/10.3390/en16031101 | |
| dc.rights | © 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license. | en |
| dc.rights.accessRights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | |
| dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | |
| dc.subject | EOLO | en |
| dc.subject | Spanish electricity markets | en |
| dc.subject | Statistical analysis | en |
| dc.subject | Wind prediction | en |
| dc.title | Analysis of the suitability of the EOLO wind-predictor model for the spanish electricity markets | en |
| dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/article | |
| dc.type.version | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion | |
| dspace.entity.type | Publication | |
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