Effects of climate change on streamflow and nitrate pollution in an agricultural mediterranean watershed in northern Spain

Predicting water quality and quantity response to climate change in a watershed is very difficult due to the complexity and uncertainties in estimating and understanding future hydrological conditions. However, hydrological models could simplify the processes and predict future impacts of agricultural activities. This study aimed to evaluate the applicability of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for climate change prediction of streamflow and nitrate load in an agricultural Mediterranean watershed in northern Spain. The model was first evaluated for simulating streamflow and nitrate load under rainfed agricultural conditions in the Cidacos River watershed in Navarre, Spain. Then, climate change impact analysis on streamflow and nitrate load was conducted in the short-term (2011–2040), medium-term (2041–2070), and long-term (2071–2100) future projections relative to the historical baseline period (1971–2000) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 CO2 emission scenarios. The model evaluation showed a good model performance result during calibration (2000–2010) and validation (2011–2020) for streamflow (NSE = 0.82/0.83) and nitrate load (NSE = 0.71/0.68), indicating its suitability for adoption in the watershed. The climate change projection results showed a steady decline in streamflow and nitrate load for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in all projections, with the long-term projection scenario of RCP8.5 greatly affected. Autumn and winter saw a considerable drop in comparison to spring and summer. The decline in streamflow was attributed to the projected decrease in precipitation and increase in temperatures, while the nitrate load decline was consistent with the projected streamflow decline. Based on these projections, the long-term projection scenarios of RCP8.5 indicate dire situations requiring urgent policy changes and management interventions to minimize and mitigate the resulting climate change effects. Therefore, adapted agricultural management practices are needed to ensure sustainable water resource utilization and efficient nitrogen fertilizer application rates in the watershed to reduce pollution.