Effects of climate change on streamflow and nitrate pollution in an agricultural mediterranean watershed in northern Spain

Oduor, Brian Omondi; Campo-Bescós, Miguel; Lana Renault, Noemí; Casalí Sarasíbar, Javier

Effects of climate change on streamflow and nitrate pollution in an agricultural mediterranean watershed in northern Spain

dc.contributor.author	Oduor, Brian Omondi
dc.contributor.author	Campo-Bescós, Miguel
dc.contributor.author	Lana Renault, Noemí
dc.contributor.author	Casalí Sarasíbar, Javier
dc.contributor.department	Ingeniería	es_ES
dc.contributor.department	Ingeniaritza	eu
dc.contributor.department	Institute on Innovation and Sustainable Development in Food Chain - ISFOOD	en
dc.date.accessioned	2023-09-04T12:56:08Z
dc.date.available	2023-09-04T12:56:08Z
dc.date.issued	2023
dc.date.updated	2023-09-04T12:43:15Z
dc.description.abstract	Predicting water quality and quantity response to climate change in a watershed is very difficult due to the complexity and uncertainties in estimating and understanding future hydrological conditions. However, hydrological models could simplify the processes and predict future impacts of agricultural activities. This study aimed to evaluate the applicability of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for climate change prediction of streamflow and nitrate load in an agricultural Mediterranean watershed in northern Spain. The model was first evaluated for simulating streamflow and nitrate load under rainfed agricultural conditions in the Cidacos River watershed in Navarre, Spain. Then, climate change impact analysis on streamflow and nitrate load was conducted in the short-term (2011–2040), medium-term (2041–2070), and long-term (2071–2100) future projections relative to the historical baseline period (1971–2000) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 CO2 emission scenarios. The model evaluation showed a good model performance result during calibration (2000–2010) and validation (2011–2020) for streamflow (NSE = 0.82/0.83) and nitrate load (NSE = 0.71/0.68), indicating its suitability for adoption in the watershed. The climate change projection results showed a steady decline in streamflow and nitrate load for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in all projections, with the long-term projection scenario of RCP8.5 greatly affected. Autumn and winter saw a considerable drop in comparison to spring and summer. The decline in streamflow was attributed to the projected decrease in precipitation and increase in temperatures, while the nitrate load decline was consistent with the projected streamflow decline. Based on these projections, the long-term projection scenarios of RCP8.5 indicate dire situations requiring urgent policy changes and management interventions to minimize and mitigate the resulting climate change effects. Therefore, adapted agricultural management practices are needed to ensure sustainable water resource utilization and efficient nitrogen fertilizer application rates in the watershed to reduce pollution.	en
dc.description.sponsorship	This study was supported by funding from the European Union's H2020 research and innovation programme under Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 801586, and from the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (Government of Spain) via Research Project CGL2015–64284-C2–1-R and PID2020–112908RB-I00 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033/FEDER "Una manera de hacer Europa".	en
dc.format.mimetype	application/pdf	en
dc.format.mimetype	application/msword	en
dc.identifier.citation	Oduor, B. O., Campo-Bescós, M. Á., Lana-Renault, N., Casalí, J. (2023) Effects of climate change on streamflow and nitrate pollution in an agricultural mediterranean watershed in northern Spain. Agricultural Water Management, 285, 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2023.108378.	en
dc.identifier.doi	10.1016/j.agwat.2023.108378
dc.identifier.issn	0378-3774
dc.identifier.uri	https://academica-e.unavarra.es/handle/2454/46215
dc.language.iso	eng	en
dc.publisher	Elsevier	en
dc.relation.ispartof	Agricultural Water Management 285, (2023), 108378	en
dc.relation.projectID	info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/European Commission/Horizon 2020 Framework Programme/801586/
dc.relation.projectID	info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO//CGL2015-64284-C2-1-R/ES/
dc.relation.projectID	info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/PID2020-112908RB-I00/ES/
dc.relation.publisherversion	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2023.108378
dc.rights	© 2023 The Authors. This is an open access article under the CC BY license.	en
dc.rights.accessRights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri	https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject	Future projection	en
dc.subject	Nitrate load	en
dc.subject	Rainfed agriculture	en
dc.subject	SWAT model	en
dc.subject	Water quality	en
dc.title	Effects of climate change on streamflow and nitrate pollution in an agricultural mediterranean watershed in northern Spain	en
dc.type	info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.version	info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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