Publication:
Growing pains: can family policies revert the decline of fertility in Spain?

Consultable a partir de

Date

2023

Authors

Díaz Gandasegui, Vicente
Sanz, María T.

Director

Publisher

Cogitatio
Acceso abierto / Sarbide irekia
Artículo / Artikulua
Versión publicada / Argitaratu den bertsioa

Project identifier

MICINN//PID2020– 112517GB‐I00

Abstract

This article aims to analyze the capability of family policies to reverse the sharp decline in fertility that has been observed in Spain in recent decades. The analysis was carried out by applying two mathematical techniques: the genetic algorithm and the strategic scenarios. Firstly, a mathematical model was designed and validated adjusting the combined performance of fertility and family policies during the 2008–2019 period. Subsequently, this model was applied to the future (2020–2060) to extrapolate the evolution of fertility considering different models of family policies. The results demonstrate that a model of family policies that is coherent with other socially desirable objectives, such as gender and social equality, will be insufficient to reverse the current downward trend in fertility. Therefore, these outcomes point to the need to articulate and harmonize diverse public policies considering the principles of equality and well‐being to modify the recent decline in fertility. An increase in fertility must therefore be identified as a socially desirable goal and public policies must be adapted to this objective, in the understanding that fertility not only requires family policies but also their coherence with the employment and educational policies and work–life balance mechanisms offered by public institutions.

Description

Keywords

Family policies, Fertility, Genetic algorithms, Spain, Strategic scenarios

Department

Sociología y Trabajo Social / Soziologia eta Gizarte Lana

Faculty/School

Degree

Doctorate program

item.page.cita

Elizalde-San Miguel, B., Díaz-Gandasegui, V., Sanz García, M. T. (2023) Growing pains: can family policies revert the decline of fertility in Spain?. Social Inclusion, 11(1), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.17645/si.v11i1.6141.

item.page.rights

© Begoña Elizalde¿San Miguel, Vicente Díaz Gandasegui, María T. Sanz. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license.

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